mm_3@tropmet.res.in
+91-20-2590-4424
APRIL 11
Introduction to GSI - Daryl T. Kleist
Introduction to satellite radiance data assimilation - Daryl T. Kleist
Running the Global Forecast System (GFS) - Khoward
Monsoon Desk at NCEP - Khoward
Global Forecast System - Shrinivas Moorthi
Introduction to The National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) - Shrinivas Moorthi
APRIL 12
Global Forecast System Operational at IMD - Dr. S.K. Roy Bhowmik
Introduction to the EMC pre-implementation GFS/CFS parallel system - Shrinivas Moorthi
Background Error - Daryl T. Kleist
APRIL 13
Some possible future global modeling developments at NCEP
NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) - Review - Yuejian Zhu
APRIL 14
Validation of Ocean Analysis product from MOM-GODAS in the Indian Ocean - M. Ravichandran
GFS Model activities in India (NCMRWF) - Saji Mohandas
APRIL 15
MOES INDIAN PARTICIPANTS | ||||
Accommodation - IMD HOSTEL | ||||
Sr. No | Name | Affiliation | Arrival and Departure Dates | Query or Special Request |
1. | Mr. D. Pradeep Kumar | JRF,NCAOR | Arrival - 8th Feb at 18.40 PM 2015 - Pune Airport Dep - 21 Feb at 17.20 PM 2015 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | |
2. | T.S. Sreekanth | Project Fellow, NCESS | Arrival -08 Feb at 16.30 PM 2015 -Train No 16332 / MUMBAI EXPRESS Dep - 21 Feb at 01.50 AM 2015 - Train No 11013 / COIMBATORE EXP AD - 8th - 20 Feb 2015 | Pick up from Pune railway station |
NON-MOES INDIAN PARTICIPANTS | ||||
Sr. No | Name | Affiliation | Accommodation and Departure Dates | Query or Special Request |
3. | Soraisam Bidyabati | Hyderabad central University | Arrival - 7th Feb at 23:45 hr at Pune Railway Station Dep - 21 Feb at 09.00 AM 2015 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 Accommodation - NCL Guest House | send someone in the early morning of 8th February to pick us up from Pune Railway Junction |
4. | SRAVANTHI NUKAPOTHULA | Hyderabad central University | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 at 09.00 AM at Pune Railway Station Dep - 21 Feb at 09.00 AM 2015 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 Accommodation - NCL Guest House | 7th February at 23:54 along with colleague Bidya vathi. As the arrival time is mid night. In this regard, i request you to kindly send anyone to pick up from pune railway station. |
5. | Roshmitha Panda | Andhra University | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 at 08.30 AM at Pune Railway Station Dep - 21 Feb 2015 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 Accommodation - NCL Guest House | Pick up from Pune railway station at 8.00 a.m on 8th feb 2015. |
6. | Atul Kumar Singh | Climate Modelling Lab, Depart. of Geophysics BHU | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 at 05.30 AM at Pune Railway Station Dep - 21 Feb 2015 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 By Train - 12150/PNBE PUNE EXPRESS | |
7. | Shani Tiwari | Atmospheric Research Lab, Depart. of Physics BHU | ||
8. | Debanjana Das | Depart. of Atmospheric Science, Uni of Calcutta | Arrival - 8th Feb 10 am by Indigo Airline- Pune airport Accommodation - IITM Guest House | |
9. | Dhruva Pandey | Nehru Sci. centre Allahabad | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 at 06.00 AM Dep - 21 Feb 2015 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | |
10. | Vaurnesh Chandra | University of Allahabad | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 at 06.00 AM Reschedule - Arrive on 9 Feb 2015 in morning Dep - 22 Feb 2015 AD - 8th - 22 Feb 2015 | |
11. | Anupam Dixit | University of Allahabad | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 at 06.00 AM Reschedule - Feb,9 2015 in the morning Dep - 22 Feb 2015 AD - 8th - 22 Feb 2015 | |
12. | Namendra Sahi | University of Allahabad | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 at 06.00 AM Dep - 22 Feb before 10.00 am AD - 8th - 22 Feb 2015 | |
13. | Lokesh Pandey | University of Allahabad | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 at 06.00 AM Dep - 21 Feb AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | |
14. | Alok Kumar Misra | University of Allahabad | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 at 06.00 AM Reschedule - 9 Feb 2015 in morning Dep - 22 Feb AD - 9th - 22 Feb 2015 | |
15. | Dhirendra Kumar | JNU | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 at 11.00 AM Dep - 22 Feb AD - 8th - 22 Feb 2015 | Request to extend the AD till the morning of 22nd feb 2015 |
16. | Bhargavi Badal | Banaras Hindu University | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 Dep - 22 Feb AD - 8th - 22 Feb 2015 Accommodation - NCL Guest House | |
17. | Anubhav Chaudhary | Ph.D. Student, JNU, Delhi | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 afternoon Dep - 21 Feb AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | Reimbursement of flight fare as train ticket is not available,too late |
18. | PRADEEP KUMAR RAI | BHU | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 at 05.30 AM Dep - 21 Feb before 10.00 am AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | |
19. | Mr G K Sawaisarje | Scientist D, IMD-Pune | ||
20. | Mr S D Raskar | SA, Pune | ||
21. | Mr Pradeep Mishra | IMD Delhi | Arrival - 8th Feb evening/night | Need Accommodation |
Foreign Participants | ||||
Accommodation - Ramee Grand | ||||
Sr. No | Name | Nationality/Affiliation | Accommodation and Departure Dates | Query or Special Request |
22. | Tanvir Ahmed | Bangladesh | Arrival - 8 Feb, 11 am at Pune airport Dep - 21 Feb AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | Need for supporting letter for visa application |
23. | Abdul Malik | Pakistan | ||
24. | Ahmad Burhan | Pakistan | ||
25. | Akter Nasreen | Bangladesh | Arrival - 08 Feb at 19.15 9W 367 by JET AIRWAYS on T3 at Pune airport Dep - 21 Feb at 05.45 9W 2363 by JET AIRWAYS on pune Airport AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | Pickup From Pune Airport |
26. | Atique Luqman | Pakistan | unable to participate in ICTP | NOT Coming |
27. | Ghazala Qaiser | Pakistan | Sorry to inform you that I am unable to get visa to travel to Pune. I, therefore will not participate in the training. | NOT Coming |
28. | Jaghori Mustafa Ali | Afghanistan | ||
29. | Khalid Bushra | Pakistan | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015 (In the Evening) Dep - 21 Feb AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | |
30. | Khatun Mossammat Ayesha | Bangladesh | Arrival - 08 Feb at 19.15 9W 367 by JET AIRWAYS on T3 at Pune airport Dep - 21 Feb at 05.45 9W 2363 by JET AIRWAYS on pune Airport AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | Pickup From Pune Airport |
31. | Latif Muhammad | Pakistan | ||
32. | MYINT MYINT AYE | Myanmar | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015(11 AM) JET AIRWAYS Mum-Pune-Terminal - 1B Flight no- 9W 618 Dep - 21 Feb AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | |
33. | Nuryanto Danang Eko | Indonasia | ||
34. | Prakash Kumar Jha | Nepal | Arrival - 7th Feb 4 pm at Mumbai airport (AI-122 Milan-Del AI-475 Del-Mum) Dep - Mon, 23 Feb 2015, 10:05 hrs Terminal - 1A By AI-476, AI-123 Del-Milan AD - 7th Feb- 20 Feb | Pickup from the from Mumbai airport to Pune. |
35. | Regmi Suman Kumar | Nepal | Arrival - 7th Feb 18.05 pm at Mumbai airport Terminal - 2 Dep - 21 Feb 07:55 AM at Mumbai airport Terminal - 2 AD - 8th - 20 Feb 2015 AIRLINE: 9W/CJHAEM Arrival - Jet Airways-9W 265 KATHMANDU-Mumbai Dep - Jet Airways-9W 268 Mumbai-KATHMANDU | |
36. | Sonam Sonam Rabten | Bhutan | Arrival - 8th Feb 2015, Paro- Delhi, KB 204 08 Feb @ 20:55 GoIndia G8-177 Dep - 21 Feb @ 10:30 Jet AirWays 9W-366 22nd Feb 2015, Delhi-Paro, KB 205 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | |
37. | Warasooriya Anusha Rashanthie | Sri Lanka | UL 141 S 07FEB CMB BOM HS1 2340 #0205 9W 618 H 08FEB BOM PNQ HS1 1005 1055 9W 617 H 21FEB PNQ BOM HS1 1740 1825 UL 142 S 22FEB BOM CMB HS1 0305 0530 | Arrival time is 10:55a.m. on 08th Feb 2015 |
38. | Zahid | Maldives | Arrival - AI266 V SU 08FEB 15 MLE BLR HK1 1405 1645 AI610 V SU 08 FEB 15 BLR BOM HK1 1900 2050 320 S0 R Dep - AI603 V SA 21FEB15 BOM BLR HK1 0615 0745 319 AI265 G SA 21FEB15 BLR MLE HK1 1145 1315 319 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | Pickup from Mumbai Airport to Pune No pork and pork products and no alcohols |
39. | ANA LIZA SOLIS | Philippines | Not Coming | |
40. | Ahmed Nijhum Rokeya | Bangladesh | Arrival - 08 Feb at 19.15 9W 367 by JET AIRWAYS on T3 at Pune airport Dep - 21 Feb at 05.45 9W 2363 by JET AIRWAYS on pune Airport AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | Pickup From Pune Airport |
41. | Babiker Safa Abdelhameed | Sudan | Arrival - 08 Feb 2015 Dep - 21 Feb. 2015 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | Halal Meat |
42. | Hossein Hamzeh Nasim | Iran | Arrival - 09 Feb 2015 at 9 Am Dep - 21 Feb. 2015 AD - 9th - 21 Feb 2015 | |
43. | Rupa Kumar | Arrival - 7 Feb at 3.25 AM - Pune Airport, Flight No. LH-768 (From Frankfurt to Pune) Dep - 12 Feb early morning 2015 AD - 9th - 21 Feb 2015 | ||
44. | Dr. Satya Prakash | NCMRWF | Arrival - AI 849 08 Feb at 18.40 PM 2015 Dep - AI 850 21 Feb at 19.20 PM 2015 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | Pick up from Pune Airport |
45. | P Vijay | INCOIS | ||
46. | Abhishek Lodh | NCMRWF | Arrival -08 Feb at 18.40 PM 2015 By AI 849 Dep - 21 Feb at 19.20 PM 2015 By AI 850 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | Pick up from Pune Airport |
47. | Dr. Amar Jyothi | NCMRWF | Arrival -08 Feb at 18.40 PM 2015 By AI 849 Dep - 21 Feb at 17.20 PM 2015 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 | Pick up from Pune Airport |
48. | Dr. Nuncio Murukesh | Scientist-C,NCAOR | Arrival -09 Feb Morning Dep - 21 Feb at 17.20 PM 2015 AD - 8th - 21 Feb 2015 |
Sr. No | Name | Mobile No. |
1. | Shri Vipin Mali | 9823065667 |
2. | Ramu A. Dandi | 8605952629 |
3. | Rakesh Nandanwar | 9765456862 |
4. | R.N. Kulkarni | 8888328133 |
5. | Rahul | 9594588588 |
ICTP-ESSO-IITM-WMO TTA 9-20th February, 2015 Download Tentative Agenda |
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Date
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9:00-10:00
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10:00-11:00
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Tea Break 11:00-11:30
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11:30-12:30
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12:30-13:30
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Lunch Break
13:30-14:30
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14:30-15:30
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15:30-16:30
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Tea Break 16:30-17:00
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17:00:18:00
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9/Feb./2015
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Inauguration
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Prof. J. Shukla
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Dr. R. Krishnan
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Prof. Valerio
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Hands on Training (Rajib, Gibies, Phani and Sabeer)
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10/Feb./2015
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Dr. Suryachandra Rao
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Prof. O.P.Sharma
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Dr. P. Mukhopadhyay
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Dr. P. Mukhopadhyay
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Hands on Training (Rajib, Gibies, Phani and Sabeer)
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11/Feb./2015
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Prof. O.P Sharma
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Prof. O.P.Sharma
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Dr. S. Halder
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Dr. P. Mukhopadhyay
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Hands on Training (Rajib, Gibies, Phani and Sabeer)
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12/Feb./2015
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Prof. B.N.Goswami
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Dr. S. Halder
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Prof. O.P. Sharma
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Dr. Fred Kucharski
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Hands on Training (Rajib, Gibies, Phani and Sabeer)
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13/Feb./2015
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Prof. B.N.Goswami
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Dr. S. Halder
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Prof. Suneet Dwivedi
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Prof. Suneet Dwivedi
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Hands on Training (Rajib, Gibies, Phani and Sabeer)
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14/Feb./2015
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Holiday
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15/Feb./2015
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16/Feb./2015
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Dr. M. Rajeevan
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Prof. Raghu Murtuggudde
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Prof. Boualem Khouider
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Prof. Brain Mapes
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Dr. Boualem Khouider
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Hands on Training (Rajib, Gibies, and Phani)
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17/Feb./2015
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Prof. Brain Mapes
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Prof. Mike Wallace
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Prof. Mike Wallace
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Prof. Raghu Murtuggudde
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Prof. Raghu Murtugudde
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Prof. D. Sengupta
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Dr. Andrew Turner
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18/Feb./2015
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Monsoon Mission Review Meeting Lectures
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19/Feb./2015
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20/Feb./2015
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Prof. J. Shukla
Dr. M. Rajeevan:
Cloud-radiation interaction in the observations and models
Prof. Valerio Lucarini
Analysis of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models performance in representing the hydrological cycle in major South and South-East Asian river basins: present climate and future climate projections.
Dr. Suryachandra Rao
1.
Impact of high resolution Coupled Modelling on simulation and prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon.
Prof. Raghu Murtugudde (3 Lectures, 16-17, Feb, 2015)
Prof. O.P. Sharma (3 Lectures 10-12, Feb, 2015)
Heat-induced tropical circulations, I, II, III
Dr. P. Mukhopadhyay (3 Lectures, 11-13th Feb. 2015)
Dr. R. Krishnan (1 Lecture, 9th Feb. 2015)
1. IITM Earth System Modelling
Prof. B.N.Goswami (2 Lectures, 12-13th Feb. 2015)
Predictability of Monsoon (2 Lectures, 12-13, Feb, 2015)
1. Seasonal Prediction
2.
Extended Range Prediction of Active/Break Cycles
Dr. Andrew Turner (1 Lecture, 17th Feb. 2015)
Prof. Brain Mapes (16th -17th Feb. 2015, 2 Lectures)
Prof. Mike Wallace (2 lectures 17th Feb, 2015)
Dr. Boualem Khouider (2 Lectures, 16-17th, Feb. 2015)
1.
Multi cloud Multi Scale modeling
Dr. Subhadeep Halder (3 Lectures, 11th-13th, Feb, 2015)
Registration
Abstract Submission
Travel Details
Earth System Science Organization
Ministry of Earth Sciences
Monsoon Mission Review Meeting
Venue: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
18 - 20 February 2015 Download Agenda
Wednesday, 18th February, 2015
Sr.No. | Name of PI | Invitation Letters | Travel Details |
1. | Dr. James L. Kinter | ||
2. | Dr. Kamal Puri |
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3. | Dr. Ralf Toumi |
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4. | Prof. Eugenia Kalnay |
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5. | Prof. Raghu Murtugudde |
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6. | Dr. H. Annamalai |
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7. | Dr. Tiruvalam Natarajan Krishnamurti |
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8. | Prof. Terray Pascal |
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9. | Dr. Saji N. Hameed |
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10. | Dr. Ruby Krishnamurti |
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12. | Dr. Richard Renshaw |
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13. | Dr. Brian Mapes |
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14. | Dr. Boualem Khouider |
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15. | Dr. Arun Kumar |
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16. | Dr. Andrew Turner |
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17. | Dr. Neena Joseph Mani |
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18. | Dr. Stephanie Josephine Bush |
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19. | Mr. Abhishek Das |
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20. | Dr. Arindam Chakraborty |
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21. | Mr. Baby Chakrapani |
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22. | Prof. Debasis Sengupta |
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23. | Prof. Dev Niyogi |
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24. | Dr. G. Mrudula |
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25. | Dr. M.S. Madhusoodana |
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26. | Dr. S. Janakiraman |
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27. | Dr. Shailendra Rai |
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28. | Dr. SSVS Ramakrishna |
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29. | Dr. Suneet Dwivedi |
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30. | Prof. Sutapa Chaudhuri |
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31. | Dr. Vasubandhu Misra |
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32. | Prof. Weiqing Han |
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33. | Dr. Ajaya Mohan Ravindran |
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Earth System Science Organization
Ministry of Earth Sciences
Monsoon Mission Review Meeting
Venue: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
18 - 20 February 2015 Download Agenda
Wednesday, 18th February, 2015
Time | Events |
09.30 - 10.00 | Inauguration Ceremony |
Dr Shailesh Nayak, Chairman, ESSO and the Secretary, MoES Dr Vinod Gaur, Chairman, Governing Council, ESSO-IITM Monsoon Mission Director Associate Monsoon Mission Director | |
10.30 - 13.20 : Session-1 : Model Development Activities at MoES/NOAA/UKMET | |
10:00 - 10:30 | Model development activities at ESSO-IITM (CFS V2): Dr Suryachandra Rao, IITM Pune. |
10.30 - 11.00 | Tea/coffee |
11:00 - 11:30 | Experimental extended range monsoon forecasts: Dr A.K.Sahai, IITM Pune . |
11:30 - 12:00 | Model Development activities at ESSO-NCMRWF (UKMO): Dr. E.N.Rajagopal, NCMRWF. |
12:00 - 12:30 | Monsoon Desk and Recent model Development activities at NCEP (CFS V2): Dr. Partha Bhattacharjee, NCEP. |
12:30 - 13:00 | MoES-UKMO Cooperation and UKMO model development activities at UKMO: Dr Richard Renshaw, UK Met Office. |
13:00 - 13:20 | Operational Short-range and Long range forecasts by ESSO-IMD: Dr. Y.V.Rama Rao/Dr D. Sivanand Pai, IMD Pune. |
13:20 - 14:00: LUNCH | |
14:00 - 16:00 : Session-2 : Model Diagnostics for model development-I | |
14:00 - 14:30 | Sensitivity Studies for Indian Monsoon Forecast Modelling: Dr T.N.Krishnamurti, FSU, USA. |
14:30 - 15:00 | Ocean-Land-Atmosphere coupling and initialization stratazies to improve CFS v2 and Monsoon Prediction: Dr James L Kinter, GMU, USA. |
15:00 - 15:30 | Understanding bias errors and addressing physics errors in the CFS V2 model: Dr Brain Mapes, University of Miami. |
15:30 - 16:00 | Understanding the role of sea surface temperatures in the simulation and prediction of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation: Dr Arun Kumar, NCEP USA. |
16:00 - 16:30 | Extended Monsoon Episodes: Understanding processes and pathways for improved prediction CFS v2: Dr H. Annamalai, IPRC, Hawai. |
16:30 - 17:00: Tea/Coffee | |
17:00 - 18:30: Session-3. New Techniques and Parametrization Schemes | |
17:00 - 17:30 | An approach of Multiscale multicloud parameterization to improve the CFS model fidelity of monsoon weather and climate through better organized tropical convection: Dr Bhoualem Khoudier, University of Victoria, Canada. |
17:30 - 18:00 | Advancing Monsoon Weather Climate Fidelity in the NCEP CFS through Improved Cloud-Radiation-Dynamical Representation: Dr Duane Waliser, JPL, USA. |
18:00 - 18:30 | Stochastic Parameterization and Forecasting of Wind Energy in India: Dr Ralf Toumi, Imperial College, UK. |
19:00 Onwords | Dinner |
Thursday, 19th February 2015 | |
09:30 - 13:30 : Session-4 : Modelling activities with UKMO model | |
09:30 - 10:00 | Improved Indo-UK capability for seamless forecasting of monsoon rainfall: from days to the season: Dr Andrew Turner, University of Reading . |
10:00 - 10:30 | Diurnal variability of summer monsoon rainfall in the UKMO-Unified Model: Dr M.S. Madhusoodanan, TERI. |
10:30 - 11:00 | Impacts of ocean-atmosphere coupling and SST high frequency variability on the coupled simulation of the mean state and variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon: Dr Pascal Terray, LMD France. |
11:00 - 11:30 | Evaluation and Improvement of the Unified Model for Short- and Medium-Range Prediction of Monsoon Rain Systems: Dr Kamal Puri, CAWCR, Australia . |
11:30 - 12:00 | Tea/Coffeee |
12:00 - 16:00 : Session-5 : Observational networks and Data Assimilation | |
12:00 - 12:20 | Atmospheric Observational Networks by IMD: Dr. Y.V.Rama Rao IMD. |
12:20 - 12:40 | Atmospheric Observational Research Campaigns: Dr. Thara Prabhakaran, IITM. |
12:40 - 13:00 | Ocean Observational Network: Dr. Satish Shenoi, INCOIS. |
13:00 - 13:30 | Coupled physical processes in the Bay of Bengal and monsoon air-sea interaction: Dr Debasis Sengupta, IISc Bangalore. |
13:30 - 14:30 LUNCH Session-5 Continue.... | |
14:30 - 15:00 | Use of observations defining upper ocean processes in the Bay of Bengal towards improved weather/seasonal forecast: Dr Rubi Krishamurti, FSU, USA. |
15:00 - 15:30 | Improving Monsoon Predictions with a Coupled Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation System: Dr Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland. |
15:30 - 16:00 | The Indian Monsoon Advanced Regional Reanalysis (IMARR) Project: Dr Dale Barker, Met Office, UK. |
16:0 - 16:30 | Improved Ocean Initialization for Coupled Modelling for week-2 Monsoon forecast: Dr Suneet Dwivedi, University of Allahabad. |
16:30 - 17:00 | Tea/Coffee |
17:00 - 18:30 : Session-6 : Model Diagnostics – II | |
17.00 - 17:30 | Role of the atmosphere and the Indian Ocean in the evolution of Monsoon-ENSO teleconnection in CFS: Dr Raghu Murtugudde, University of Maryland . |
17.30 - 18:00 | Improving multi-scale variability and interactions in a global coupled seasonal climate forecast system through embedded regional modeling at weather and cloud resolving scales: Dr Saji Hameed, University of Aizu, Japan. |
18:00 - 18.30 | Identification and Correction of Errors in Various Components of Dynamics and Physics of the Global Forecast System (GFS) Model: Dr Arindam Chakraborty, IISc Bangalore. |
19:00 hrs | Dinner |
Friday, 20th February 2015 | |
09:30 - 11:30 : Session-7 : Model Diagnostics – II | |
09:30 - 09:50 | Role of ocean in the extended range prediction of monsoon's active break cycle improving hindcast skill of the NCEP CFS modelling system: Dr Baby Chakrapani, CUSAT, India . |
09:50 - 10:10 | Predictability of intraseasonal oscillatory modes and ENSO-monsoon relationship in NCEP CFS with reference to Indian & Pacific Ocean: Dr Shailendra Rai, Allahabad University. |
10:10 - 10.30 | Towards understanding the biases in the model SST, wind field and rainfall in the Climate Forecasting System for the Monsoon: Dr SSVS Ramakrishna, Andhra University. |
10:30 - 10.50 | Bias estimation and effort for removal of UM/CFS coupled model output with adaptive techniques for improving forecast skill of Indian summer monsoon: Dr Sutapa Chaudhari, University of Calcutta, India. |
10:50 - 11.15 | Tea/Coffee |
11:15 - 13:45 | Monsoon Mission SRMC meeting (closed door meeting) |
13:45 - 14.30 | LUNCH |
Time(Hrs. IST) | Description |
---|---|
14:30 – 14:45 | Welcome remarks by the Chairman |
14:45 – 15:00 | Explanation of terms of reference by Member Secretary |
15:00 – 15:45 | Presentation of Status Report by PI (Prof. Debasis Sengupta) |
15:45 – 16:00 | Tea Break |
16:00 – 16:40 | Comments and suggestions by the Committee |
16:40 – 16:45 | Vote of thanks |
Sr. No. | Name | Address | Designation | Email ID |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Prof. V. K. Gaur | Hon. Scientist CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling And Computer Simulation (C-MMACS) Bangalore 560 037, INDIA | Chairman | gaur@cmmacs.ernet.in |
2. | Dr. S. W. A. Naqvi | Director, National Institute of Oceanography Dona Paula - 403 004, Goa, INDIA | Member | naqvi@nio.org |
3. | Dr. R. R. Rao | Director, ICMPO, CCCR Building, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr.Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008 Maharashtra, India | Member | rokkamrr@tropmet.res.in |
4. | Dr. Raj Kumar | Scientist-G Ocean Science Division Metrology & Oceanography Group Space Application Centre (ISRO) Ahmedabad-380053, INDIA | Member | rksharma@sac.isro.gov.in rkumar.sharma@gmail.com |
5. | Prof. Debasis Sengupta | Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, | Principal Investigator | |
6. | Dr. A. Suryachandra Rao | Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr.Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008 Maharashtra, India | Member |
Sr. No. | Name and Organisation | Onward Journey | Return Journey | Accommodation |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Dr. V. K. Gaur, Hon Scientist, CMMACS | Taken care by Director’s office | Taken care by Director’s office | Taken care by Director’s office |
2. | Prof. Debasis Sengupta, CAOS, IISc, Bangalore | 21st July 2014 at 11:15 am by 6E 102 From Bangalore to Pune | 21st July 2014 at 9:50 pm by 6E 103 From Pune to Bangalore | IITM Guest House |
3. | Dr. Raj Kumar, Scientist-G, SAC Ahmedabad Contact No. +91 9898575023 | 20th July 2014 at 4 : 40 PM From Ahmedabad to Pune by Flight No. 6E 136 Arriving Time : 5:55 PM | 22nd July 2014 at 12:15 PM From Pune to Ahmedabad by Flight No. SG 342 ARRIVING TIME: 01:30 PM | Mr Ravi K Misra W-904 Cosmos Magarpatta City, Hadapsar Pune 411013 |
4. | Dr. S.W.A. Naqvi, Director, NIO, Goa | Taken care by Director’s office | Taken care by Director’s office | Taken care by Director’s office |
All CGCMs have some systematic biases. NCEP-CFS is not an exception. The mean ISMR is characterized by rainfall maxima over central India (CI) along with north Bay of Bengal (BoB), Western Ghat and south of equatorial Indian Ocean region (Fig. 1(c)). Both versions of CFS (v1 & v2) are able to simulate rainfall maxima over Western Ghat and north BoB (Fig.1(a) and (b)) ; however, there are large dry bias over CI. CFSv2 is able to simulate the Equatorial rainfall maxima; however, it is shifted towards west in CFSv1. Therefore, rainfall bias has east-west dipole structure in CFSv1 (Fig.1(d)). Chaudhari et al. (2013) have shown that this dipole structure of bias in CFSv1 has large implications in other related atmospheric processes through feedback mechanism.
A dry (wet) rainfall bias over east (west) Indian Ocean induces anomalous low level easterlies over tropical Indian Ocean and causes cold SST bias over east Indian Ocean by triggering evaporation and warm SST bias over west Indian Ocean through advection of warm waters. The persistent SST bias retains the zonal asymmetric heating and meridional temperature gradient resulting in a circum-global subtropical westerly jet core, which in turn magnifies the mid-latitude disturbances and decreases the Mascarene high. The decreased Mascarene high diminishes the strength of monsoon cross-equatorial flow and results in less upwelling as compared to that in the observation. It further increases the SST bias over the West Indian Ocean (Chaudhari et al., 2013).
The ability to simulate the right location of equatorial rainfall maxima is a major improvement in CFSv2 as compared with CFSv1 (Saha et al., 2014). Nevertheless the fundamental problem of dry bias over Indian land mass (CI) still persists and it is further enhanced in CFSv2 (Fig. 1(e)).
The monsoon is a coupled ocean–atmosphere system and its strength is determined by air-sea interaction processes. SST, being an integral part of the ocean, plays a significant role in influencing ISMR. Realistic simulation of SST SST is one of the necessary conditions for better simulation of ISMR. The seasonal SST is characterized by warm pool region (SST > 28° C) over east Arabian Sea, entire BoB, central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is evident from Reynolds data (Fig. 2(c)). Both versions of the model are able to capture the spatial patterns of SST. However, the equatorial warm pool maxima is shifted towards west and there is a permanent east-west dipole structure in CFSv1 (Fig. 2(d)). On the other hand, CFSv2 underestimates SST over most of the Indian Ocean basin (Fig. 2(e)). Despite strong cold SST bias in CFSv2, rainfall pattern over BoB and equatorial Indian Ocean are reasonably good, which suggest, north-south SST gradient is more important rather than mean SST for the monsoon convective activity.
North-south gradient of the vertically averaged air temperature between 200 hPa and 600 hPa (known as TT) over Indian subcontinent region is very important in order to sustain the monsoon circulation (Webster et al., 1998; Goswami and Xavier, 2005) . The meridional TT gradient (TTG) is also closely linked with the onset and withdrawal of Indian summer monsoon (Ueda and Yasunari, 1998; Goswami and Xavier, 2005). The north-south TTG is calculated using vertically averaged (200-600 hPa) temperature difference between a northern box (40°E - 100°E, 5°N-35° N) and the southern box (40°E - 100°E, 15°S-5° N) ( Xavier et al., 2007).
This TT is one of the most vital parameter which can be used to check the ability of a model for realistic representation of monsoon. Mean seasonal TT is dominated by elevated heat source of Tibetan plateau and a sharp meridional heating gradient, as large as 4-6°K, is seen in NCEP and ERA-Interim reanalysis (Fig. 3(c) and (d)). Both models are able to simulate the warm troposphere over Tibetan plateau along with the meridional temperature gradient (Fig. 3(a) and (b)). However, both models underestimate the mean TT as well as TTG (Fig. 3(e) and (h)). It may be noted that CFSv1 has more bias in TTG than that of CFSv2 (Figure not shown). Also, TT is underestimated throughout the Indian sub-continent region in both versions of the CFS model.
Cold bias in the temperature field may be attributed to the ill representation of the ratio of convective and stratiform rainfall (Saha et al., 2014). Observation shows that the ratio of convective and total rainfall over the tropical region is about 40–50%. However, in both models convective rainfall has major contribution (more than 90%) particularly over oceans. Although CFSv2 shows some slight improvements in CRF over Indian land-mass, it deteriorates over equatorial Indian Ocean. Monsoon onset and withdrawal dates are also more realistic in CFSv2 than that in CFSv1.
Other than improvements in mean seasonal fields, the intra-seasonal elements in terms of ISO variance and propagation characteristics are improved remarkably in the CFSv2 (Sabeerali et al., 2013). However, the speed of northward propagating ISOs are slower in both model and may be linked with the weak vertical shear in the zonal wind. Air–sea interaction expressed as a local SST and rainfall correlation is reasonably good in both versions of the model. Rainfall over Indian subcontinent is anti-correlated with Ni˜ no3 SST in a better way in CFSv2 as compared with CFSv1.
A preliminary result from the sensitivity experiment using OSU/NOAH land-surface models indicates the role of land-surface processes on the simulation of rainfall maxima over equatorial Indian Ocean along with maritime continent region (Saha et al., 2014). It is found that, CFSv2 using NOAH (OSU) land model produces more (less) rainfall over maritime continent region. This causes change in low-level westerly wind due to changes in the tropospheric heating, which in turn affects the SST over equatorial Indian Ocean. Therefore, some of the rainfall bias may be linked with the proper representation of land-surface processes and those need to be identified and improved. Apart from this, convective and stratiform rainfall ratio should be improved through the improvements in the cloud parametrization schemes. This can reduce the cold bias in the model. Further improvement in the simulation of mean monsoon is expected to increase prediction skill of CFSv2.
The above studies indicate that, there is lot of scope for improvement in seasonal prediction skill of monsoon rainfall in the CGCM, like NCEP-CFS.
Efforts will be made to identify the model biases in both free runs and hindcast runs for both the coupled modelling systems (NCEP CFS and UKMO UM). The reasons behind the growth of these model biases (errors) will be investigated and probable sensitivity experiments will be carried out to reduce these errors. Some of the studies (at IITM) related to identification of model biases has already been mentioned in Section 5.1. The models which show fidelity in mean monsoon circulation are expected to perform better in real time monsoon prediction.
Arakawa (2004) gave a detailed review of the conceptual framework of current cumulus parameterization. Arakawa (1975) mentioned that clouds and associated microphysical processes affect the climate system through the coupled radiative-dynamical-hydrological processes in terms of release of latent heat of condensation, evaporation etc. and redistribution of latent and sensible heat in the atmosphere. There are other important processes related to Ocean and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) as well. Cumulus convection plays an important role in the mentioned coupled processes. Therefore representation of cumulus convection or cumulus parameterization in numerical model is one of the most important component that can affect the model simulation. Much of the model uncertainties are attributed to the inappropriate representation of clouds and associated processes.
Major practical and conceptual problems in the conventional approach of cumulus parameterization, includes inappropriate separations of processes and scales (Arakawa, 2004). The intermodal variance of projections of ISMR (Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall) by the models in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is as large as the signal of increase in the ensemble means (Randall et al. 2007). Among a few other reasons, a major reason for the current suite of climate models’ poor skill in predicting the seasonal mean ISMR and uncertainty in the projections under climate change scenarios is the large systematic dry bias over the Bay of Bengal (Randall et al. 2007).
Keeping the above studies in to account and the present performance of cumulus parameterization, a suite of approaches are planned to be implemented in the CFS Version2 model for the purpose of improving the ISMR.
The studies based on observations (Abhik et al. 2012, Chattopadhyay et al. 2009, Goswami et al., 2011, Jiang et al., 2011) gave a framework to understand different mechanisms related to dynamics and cloud processes during different phases of ISMR. The hypothesis put forward for the mechanism which is responsible for evolution of different ISMR phases could be actually tested in a coupled model such as CFSV2 provided the necessary representation of cloud processes are implemented.
As such with this background motivation and objectives we have proposed to implement following developmental work in CFSV2
Fig.13: Schematic representation of Super Parameterization
Quantitative forecasting of precipitation has been one of the major challenges in operational General Circulation Model (GCM). Besides other processes, understanding of microphysical process is one of the key aspects in GCM. The effects of clouds on the treatment of condensation and evaporation are also important in the precipitation calculation. Although using simple scheme some reasonable precipitation forecasts have been produced but one cannot neglect cloud water and cloud ice in the model thermodynamic and hydrological fields.
Furthermore, the exclusion of ice-phase clouds in the model can lead to underestimates of latent heat released above the freezing level and therefore weakens the feedback of condensation to the thermodynamic fields. Recently Waliser et al. (2009) have shown that the representation of cloud ice in GCM is inadequate. They have analyzed many satellite data and pointed out that even though parameterization in GCMs accounting for cloud ice processes have, still is not sufficient. A schematic diagram illustrating measurement methods for estimating cloud ice water content/path, including in-situ measurements as well as passive, radar and limb-sounding satellite techniques have been shown in Fig. 14.
Fig. 14: Schematic diagram illustrating measurement methods for estimating cloud ice water content/path, including in-situ measurements as well as passive, radar and limb-sounding satellite techniques.
(Adopted from Waliser et al. 2009)
The parameterization of precipitation production is required in order to water substance from the atmosphere to the ground. The difficulties in the precipitation calculation arise from the complexity of the precipitation formation processes that involves complicated interactions among precipitation particles of different size, shape and phases. A complete description of precipitation formation required a good understanding of the characteristics and behavior of the different hydrometeors in the atmosphere. Understanding the representation of some processes like auto-conversion and accretion in the warm phase, aggregation and the Bergeron process in the mixed phase of the GCM are also essential. The cloud ice growth processes are associated with ice mass and/or particle diameter and also particle fall velocity. The deposition is the primary process associated with cloud and snow, while riming is the primary processes responsible for graupel formation (Fig. 15).
Fig. 15: Schematic diagram illustrating basic features of model parameterizations of cloud-related ice for a conventional GCM using a single species microphysics scheme (left) and a 3-species microphysics scheme (right). (Adopted from Waliser et al. 2009)
The biases in GCM representations of clouds – initially ice and liquid water content profiles (CIWC and CLWC) and integrated paths (CIWP and CLWP), with more recent efforts involved in exploring and quantifying the radiative impacts of precipitation – which is often ignored in GCMs.
Additionally, cloud-aerosol interaction and the role of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) of various species (e.g., mineral dust, soot, bio-aerosols) (Chen et al. 2008, Hoose et al. 2010) are important for the cloud ice and mixed-phase cloud formation. To perform a realistic model simulation, one needs to know not only microphysical mechanisms involved but also the properties (i.e. ice nucleation capabilities) of IN species.
Fig. 16: A schematic diagram of aerosol effects on clouds and cloud systems of different types. The zone above the diagonal corresponds to a decrease in precipitation with aerosol concentration. The zone below the diagonal corresponds to an increase in precipitation with an increase in the aerosol particle concentration.
(Adapted from Khain et al., 2008)
Thus, the objective of this work is to evaluate the response of microphysical processes in operational GCM where cloud water and cloud ice are prognostically calculated. Since we wish to progress model’s quantitative precipitation forecasts by improving microphysical processes although these processes are complex enough associated with precipitation
There is ample evidence that dynamical coupled models of the Earth’s climate system are reasonably good sources of seasonal predictions of the Indian monsoon and that the Climate Forecast System, version 2 of the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction is arguably among the best such models for predicting climate fluctuations on seasonal to inter-annual time scales. There is also evidence that the Indian monsoon is more predictable in theory than can be achieved with current prediction models. There are many sources of this predictability, including the influence of long-lived sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and of the soil moisture anomalies in Eurasia that act to alter the circulation and thermodynamic forcing of the atmosphere in the vicinity of south Asia, thereby influencing the precipitation over India during the Asian summer monsoon season.
Complex land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere interactions, as well as complex interactions of the atmospheric circulation in different regions, all contribute to predictability as well, which is one reason that dynamical models produce predictions that are superior to those obtainable from empirical methods. The gap between the level of predictability and actual prediction skill for the Indian monsoon can be attributed to either poor representation of relevant processes in the prediction model, poor representation of relevant features of the initial state, or both. In the proposed work, we will examine several potential sources of the prediction skill gap arising from both poor model formulation and poor initialization. Because the “memory” of the atmospheric state is limited to less than two weeks
Skill of seasonal monsoon forecasts depends on the atmospheric response to slowly varying states of the components of the Earth system, which can be predicted weeks to months in advance. ENSO is the most famous coupled atmosphere ocean mode, which modulates the Indian summer monsoon through its slowly varying cycle (i.e. El Nino, La Nina) . Another important slowly varying component of the Earth system is soil moisture, which can influence weather and climate through its impact on evaporation and surface energy fluxes.
Land atmosphere interactions have been recognized as one of the important sources of monsoon variability in many past studies (e.g. Shukla and Mintz , 1982; Webster , 1983; Meehl , 1997; Ferranti et al., 1999; Koster et al., 2004; Takata et al., 2009; Saha et al., 2011, 2012). However, there are very few measurements of land surface parameters, which restrict our ability to demonstrate impact of land surface on the seasonal monsoon rainfall. Many climate models have demonstration impact of soil moisture on rainfall and have raised hope for further improvements of land surface processes and their feedback with atmosphere, which eventually may lead to improvement in the seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon. The following tasks are planned to improve the land surface processes, their interactions and hence the monsoon simulation by CFSv2.
CFS show strong dry bias over north and central India during monsoon season. Also the model simulated mean winter and spring snow over Eurasia is almost twice to that of the observation. It is shown that improvement in the winter/spring snow bias may improve the mean dry bias over north and central India (manuscript under revision). Step 2 is now undergoing. Some improvements are expected through first cycle of this work plan (i.e., 15) and within the time frame of this program. However, this cycle has to be continued for further developments along with the improved schemes in other components of the model (i.e. ocean and atmosphere).
It is generally accepted that to the first order approximation, the differential heating between the ocean and land areas over the Indian subcontinent is a major factor in the creation of the monsoon circulation (Ramage, pg. 8, 1971). The estimate of the magnitudes of the actual heat budget components from various earlier studies brings out several factors impacting this heat budget. A popular figure of these source and sink terms established for the earth-atmosphere system are shown in Fig.1. The heat budget of an atmospheric system such as the Indian monsoon, ignoring horizontal and vertical transport, consists of balancing the effects of shortwave radiative and condensational heating with the effects of longwave radiative and evaporative cooling. Heat transfer in the atmosphere occurs in three ways: conduction, convection and radiation. The conduction requires actual contact between the mediums involved in the energy exchange, and air being a poor conductor of heat; it has a limited impact on the vertical exchanges of energy through layers of the atmosphere.
However for a homogeneous fluid like the atmosphere, both convection and radiation are important mechanisms in redistributing heat vertically in the atmosphere. If we consider the monsoon region as a closed system (or a box) and ignore advection from outside the system, solar radiation is the only incoming energy source. Within this box, the radiation interact with the constituents (atmospheric gases, clouds, aerosols, water vapor, green house gases, the earth’s surface to name few) that results in the creation of various types of internal heat source and sinks that transfer energy occurring at all spatial and temporal scales. Thus, knowledge of the radiation budget with the proper characterization of the heat sources and sinks is important in understanding the monsoon flow by giving one a feeling for the energy available for these motions. The estimation of the correct magnitude of heating and cooling is also important to improve the simulation of the radiation process and their feedback to the monsoon flow those are parameterized in the current state-of-the-art dynamical models used in monsoon forecast (e.g. CFS).
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